Real Option Models for Managing Manufacturing System Changes in the New Economy

The manufacturing environment is becoming increasingly dynamic with upsurges in electronic-commerce, supply chain management, forecasting, and procurement and resource planning. It also includes trends toward more process data acquisition and analysis, shorter production runs, and more stringent quality requirements. These drivers lead to an opportunity for companies to collect and use information to identify changes that will affect their manufacturing systems. In conjunction with an industry partner who produces home fashion products, we developed a case-study that highlights four major manufacturing transitions: new product introduction; moving a product from research and development (R&D) to commercialization; new plant location; and starting or restarting production of existing products. These types of changes cross many levels of the operation including the product level, plant level, and organizational level and typically present significant operational challenges. We use this case-study to motivate the theoretical and applied research needed to support a real option framework for system changes in manufacturing. The key elements of our framework are to quantify manufacturing changes, develop a real option model for these activities, value the options to identify the best scenarios, and integrate these elements so that we can monitor and manage the overall process. The advantage of this approach is that it allows us to directly incorporate a market driven perspective, tying the manufacturing operations with the organizational economic goals.